Skip to main content

A2A targets

Financial targets

EBITDA

Ebitda (€M) 2017 recurring 2022
Generation 353 348
Market 173 265
Waste 251 346
Networks 387 446
Other -29 -14
TOTAL 1,135 1,391

Capex plan

Capex 2018-2022 (€M)   Capex 2018-2022 (€M)   Capex 2018-2022 (€M)
Development 1,538   Regulated 1,278   Networks 1,435
Maintenance 1,122   Quasi regulated 964   Waste 712
Mandatory 105   Merchant Low volatility 49   Generation 314
      Merchant High volatility 474   Market 184
            Other 120
Total 2,765   Total 2,765   Total 2,765

 

Cash flow generation 2017-2022

Cash Flow Generation 2017-2022 (€B)
NFP 2017 3.2
EBITDA -6.4
Change in NWC & other asset liabilities 0.2
Use of Funds 0.1
Taxes 0.8
Net Financial Expenses 0.6
FFO (1) -1.5
CAPEX 2.8
Dividends 1.1
NFP 2022 ordinary 2.5
Change in perimeter (2) 0.5
NFP 2022 3.0

(1) Funds from operations after working capital change
(2) M&A price and NFP at closing

Dividends & FFO/debt 2017-2022

  2017 2018 2019 2020-2022
A2A Dividend per Share (€c) 5.8 6.7 ~7.5 Min +5% yearly

 

  2017 2018 2019 2020-2022
FFO/NET DEBT (€c) 22% 22% 22% Min +24%

FFO = Ebitda – provisions for bad debt - net interest expense - current tax expense + dividends received
Debt = gross financial debt net of surplus cash + employee benefits + liabilities for landfills

Additional projects

Upsides of
ongoing
activities

Feasibility
Project list
EBITDA
impact (€M)

•••••

Operational excellence: further Mistral roll-outs 10 - 30

•••••

Gas networks: further growth through additional gas tender 5 - 15

•••••

Geographical growth in environmental business [NEW] tbd

•••••

New energy solutions additional development [NEW] 5 - 10

External
growth

Feasibility
Project list
EBITDA
impact (€M)

•••••

Local aggregations 70 - 90

•••••

DER & RES acquisitions (mainly PV) with possible minority interests 20 - 40

•••••

Flexibility and ESCO [NEW] tbd

•••••

Public lighting & gas networks M&A [NEW] tbd

Complex
industrial
projects

Feasibility
Project list
EBITDA
impact (€M)

•••••

Potential development abroad 10 - 20

•••••

Extra investments for primary stations & “colonne montanti”(1) 5 - 8

•••••

Generation plants reconversion 5 - 10

••••

Heat transportation backbone Cassano-Milano 50 - 60

•••••

Peak technologies development [NEW] 5 - 15

••••

Business adjacencies on economy of scarcity (food tech, …) [NEW] tbd

(1) Electrical connection from road level to user’s individual apartment

[NEW] not included in last year’s «additional projects list»

 

Energy Scenario

  UdM 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Exchange rate €/$ €/$ 1.11 1.13 1.20 1.20 1.21 1.23 1.25
ICE Brent €/bbl 40.8 48.4 50.9 55.9 57.8 58.3 58.3
Coal API 2 €/tonn 54.0 74.8 72.0 67.9 63.3 61.0 57.0
CO2 EUA ETS €/tonn 5.4 5.8 7.4 7.7 8.5 9.50 11.0
ARERA Gas Tariff (Pfor) €c/mc 15.6 18.1 18.8 18.4 17.4 17.2 17.0
PSV €/MWh 15.6 19.7 19.4 19.0 18.0 17.8 17.6
TTF €/MWh 14.0 17.3 17.4 17.2 16.3 16.1 15.9
PUN Base Load €/MWh 42.7 54.0 51.0 49.7 48.6 48.6 48.4
PUN Peak Load €/MWh 48.2 61.8 58.2 55.7 54.6 54.6 54.4
CCGT Gas Cost (PSV) €/MWh 37.6 46.7 46.5 45.6 43.4 43.0 42.6
Peak Spark Spread €/MWh 10.5 15.1 11.7 10.1 11.2 11.6 11.8
Spark Spread (PSV) €/MWh 5.1 7.3 4.5 4.1 5.2 5.6 5.8
Clean Spark Spread (PSV) €/MWh 3.1 5.1 1.7 1.2 2.0 2.0 1.7
Dark Spread €/MWh 12.5 16.4 14.6 15.0 15.8 16.8 18.2
Clean Dark Spread €/MWh 7.2 10.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
White Certificates €/TEE 145.5 273.5 300.0 280.0 270.0 260.0 250.0