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A2A targets

Financial targets

EBITDA

Ebitda (€M) 2018 recurring 2023
Generation 359 323
Market 187 323
Waste 269 381
Networks 406 518
Other -29 -14
TOTAL 1,192 1,531

Capex plan

Capex 2019-2023 (€M)   Capex 2019-2023 (€M)
Development 2,607   Networks 1,459
Maintenance 1,378   Gas tenders 504
      Waste 943
      Generation 287
      M&A and RES 295
      Market 402
      Other 97
Total 3,985   Total 3,985

 

Cash flow generation 2018-2023

Cash Flow Generation 2018-2023 (€B)
NFP 2018 3.0
EBITDA -6.8
Change in NWC & other asset liabilities 0.3
Use of Funds 0.1
Taxes 0.8
Net financial expenses 0.6
Dividends 1.3
CAPEX for organic growth 3.2
Gas tenders 0.5
NFP 2023 ordinary 2.9
IFRS 16 0.1
M&A (RES) 0.3
NFP 2023 3.3

Dividends & FFO/debt 2018-2023

  2018 2019 2020 2021-2023
A2A Dividend per Share (€c) 7.0 7.75 8.0 Min +5% yearly

 

  2018 2019 2020 2021-2023
FFO/NET DEBT 25% 23% 26% Min +26%

FFO = Ebitda – provisions for bad debt - net interest expense - current tax expense + dividends received
Debt = gross financial debt net of surplus cash + employee benefits + liabilities for landfills

Additional projects

Upsides of
ongoing
activities

Feasibility
Project list
EBITDA
impact (€M)

•••••

Peak generation technology development 10 - 30

•••••

Operational excellence: further Mistral roll-outs 10 - 20

•••••

New treatment and recovery waste plants [NEW] 60 - 80

••••

Further public retail tenders gain (e.g. Safeguard) [NEW] 5 - 10

External
growth

Feasibility
Project list
EBITDA
impact (€M)

•••••

DER & RES acquisitions with possible minority interests 20 - 40

•••••

Local aggregations 60 - 70

•••••

Waste M&A on material recovery plants [NEW] 10 - 15

•••••

Market (power and gas retail, flexibility and ESCO) [NEW] tbd

••••

Corporate Venture Capital [NEW] tbd

Complex
industrial
projects

Feasibility
Project list
EBITDA
impact (€M)

•••••

Potential development abroad 10 - 20

•••••

Extra investments for “risers”(1) 5 - 10

•••••

Generation plants reconversion 5 - 10

•••••

Vertical downstream integration on environment value chain [NEW] 5 - 10

•••••

B2B services and hazardous waste segments [NEW] tbd

••••

Roll-out of pilot innovation projects [NEW] tbd
Total possible EBITDA from additional projects is 200 – 300 €M

(1) Electrical connection from road level to user’s individual apartment
[NEW] not included in last year’s «additional projects list»

 

Energy Scenario

  UdM 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Exchange rate €/$ €/$ 1.13 1.18 1.19 1.22 1.24 1.26 1.28
ICE Brent €/bbl 48.5 60.6 66.0 66.0 65.3 64.7 64.8
Coal API 2 €/tonn 74.8 78.0 80.2 68.0 65.3 64.3 64.1
CO2 EUA ETS €/tonn 5.8 15.9 21.5 21.5 21.8 22.2 22.9
ARERA Gas Tariff (Pfor) €c/mc 18.1 22.0 23.3 23.1 20.0 19.5 19.5
PSV €/MWh 19.6 24.2 23.5 23.4 20.5 20.0 20.0
TTF €/MWh 17.3 22.8 21.6 21.6 18.7 18.2 18.2
PUN Base Load €/MWh 53.9 61.3 65.8 63.6 58.2 57.5 58.1
PUN Peak Load €/MWh 61.8 68.0 74.7 69.6 64.2 63.5 64.1
CCGT Gas Cost (PSV) €/MWh 46.4 56.7 55.7 55.5 49.2 48.1 48.1
Peak Spark Spread €/MWh 15.3 11.3 19.0 14.1 15.0 15.4 16.0
Spark Spread (PSV) €/MWh 7.5 4.6 10.1 8.1 9.0 9.4 10.0
Clean Spark Spread (PSV) €/MWh 5.3 -1.4 1.5 -0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8
Dark Spread €/MWh 16.3 22.4 26.0 28.3 24.1 23.9 24.6
Clean Dark Spread €/MWh 10.6 6.9 5.1 7.4 2.9 2.3 2.3
White Certificates €/TEE 274.3 298.6 259.1 260.0 260.0 260.0 260.0